Retail sales and more debt ceiling talks are the big lights for Tuesday, as stock futures point to some volatility ahead. There was also some disappointing Chinese data which showed a slow recovery.
The latest Bank of America survey of fund managers is dipping a toe into how investors are feeling these days. Strategist Michael Hartnett and his team revealed that investor sentiment deteriorated in May to “the most bearish in 2023” as investors raised cash balances and became more negative on growth. This is good news, they say – “It is still a paradoxical situation [positive] Wall Street.
Anxious managers are convinced that risky assets will remain “resilient as long as they are.” [economic] The landing is soft.” The BofA chart below shows nearly two-thirds of people surveyed — 63% — see a soft landing as the most likely outcome for the global economy.
And 61% are convinced the Fed is done hiking, while 43% say probably not.
The following chart might explain why the market is taking Alfred E. Neumann’s approach to debt-ceiling talks, baffling some on Wall Street, with 71% expecting the cap to be raised by the alleged X date:
So where are the concerns in this Teflon market? Bank credit crunch and global recession at the top, followed by rising inflation keeping central banks tight.
If there is a credit event, most of those surveyed believe it will start to park in commercial real estate.
As for where this market looks crowded – the past month has seen a significant rotation out of commodities associated with those growth concerns – and into equities. The focus was on tech names, with weight gain the highest since December 2021, along with a move into eurozone stocks. Investors had the longest time growth versus value stocks since July 2020.
No doubt some are wondering if technology stocks can keep up the pace – Nasdaq Composite
COMP
It’s still up 18% so far this year, while the S&P 500
SPX
Just over 7%.
For those opponents out there, the trades will be bullish positions on REITs, banks and value stocks, and going in the opposite direction of the public by shorting bonds, technology and growth.
is reading: Why Stock Market Speculators Should Beware of ‘Fake Bear Market Bottoms’
markets
Stock futures
ES00
YM00
NQ00
It drifted lower ahead of retail sales data, along with Treasury yields
BX: TMUBMUSD10Y
BX: TMUBMUSD02Y
It is also heading south along with oil prices
CLAnd
dollar
DXYAnd
gold
GC00
Especially silver
SI00.
Turkish stocks and lira
USDTRY
It continues to weaken due to election tension. stock china
XX: 000300
CN: SHCOMP
It took a hit after retail sales and industrial production grew, but below the hopes of Wall Street and youth unemployment hit a record.
is reading: A possible suspension of the US debt ceiling could present an upside risk to the dollar, says BNP Paribas
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uproar
Starting with this week’s retail earnings, Home Depot
HD
The stock fell 4% on failed sales and poor expectations. This also hits Lowe’s shares
a little.
On the subject, April Retail Sales is due at 8:30 AM, Industrial Production at 9:15 AM, and Business Inventories and the Homebuilding Sentiment Index come in at 10 AM.
Blue apron stock
April
It rose 20% after the recipe-tool maker said it had signed a letter of intent with FreshRealm to funnel up to $50 million in infrastructure assistance.
Horizon treat
HZNP
It fell 16% after a report said the Federal Trade Commission would ban Amgen’s
AMGN
$27.8 billion purchase of vital medicines. Amgen, whose shares rose slightly, said it was not aware of any decision.
The first-quarter holdings of hedge fund managers and other large investors were floated late Monday. Capital One shares
COF
and Bank of New York Mellon
BK
Fell after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway
BRK
BRK
She said she bought the former and sold the latter. The group raised its HP
HPQ
Share, sold from RH
R
and Taiwanese semiconductor manufacture
TSM
bets. RH shares fell 4%.
The filings also showed that Soros Fund Management sold its entire stake in Tesla, as well as a significant cut in Rivian.
countryside.
This was followed by a Twitter attack by EV CEO Elon Musk who said George Soros “hates humanity”.
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square has taken on a new alphabet
Google
stand, cut chipotle
CMGAnd
Hilton Worldwide
HLT
and Louie
a little
bets. David Teeper’s Appaloosa gets his hands on the new Tesla
TSLA
and nvidia
NVDA
centers, FedEx bought
FDXAnd
Amazon
AMZN
and other stocks. Bill Loeb’s third point got the new Alibaba
BabaAnd
AMD
AMD
Alphabet classes, Disney dumps
dis.
Vodafone
VOD
United Kingdom: VOD
She said her performance was disappointing and would lead to 11,000 job cuts over three years. Shares fell 6%.
President Joe Biden will meet with Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and other US lawmakers to discuss the debt ceiling crisis at a meeting scheduled for 3 p.m.
And we’ll hear from a range of Fed members throughout the day: Fed Vice President of Oversight Michael Barr will testify on Capitol Hill, followed by speeches from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and New York Fed President John Williams, as well as television appearances. By Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsby, who will later participate in a panel discussion with Atlanta Fed President. Raphael Bostick.
Russia launched a fierce attack on the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, on Tuesday.
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